Its dry out there.
Climatologists at Colorado State University say that 98 percent of the state is experiencing drought conditions. Thats up from 40 percent in October.
The statewide snow pack is 49 percent of the long-term average. The late-winter and spring storms that often dump snow on Southwest Colorado have not materialized. Much of March featured May-like temperatures, and the wind has blown, sucking moisture into the atmosphere instead of sending it downslope and downstream. Dust blankets the snowcover that does remain, hastening both melt and evaporation. Forecasters are predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
Ag producers are keeping an eye on soil moisture. Throughout much of the state, the combination of drought, wind and stands of beetle-killed trees threatens forest dwellers and tourism communities. Utility managers are pondering water restrictions.
Southwest Colorado is in better shape than the center of the state, stricken with severe drought. Down here, the classification is still D0, which signifies mild drought, compared to the D3 and D4 status of the Rio Grande and Arkansas drainages, where winter offered very little relief. Nonetheless, rafters have nearly abandoned hope for a navigable spill below McPhee.
Locally, the fire danger still is moderate or it might be, if the wind would quit blowing. Expect the danger to increase through the summer.
And the fire season has begun early. So far public comment on the Lower North Fork Fire northwest of Denver last week have focused on the news that state foresters started it as a controlled burn and the areas reverse-911 emergency notification system did not work well.
Montezuma County residents certainly should advocate for better performance of both those responsibilities, which are well within human control, but dry fuels and high winds are a fact of life here too, and catastrophic fire is a definite possibility.
Visitors to Mesa Verde National Park drive through a fire-charred landscape on their way to the ruins. Anglers between the Bradfield Bridge and the McPhee Dam look up at charred hillsides. The Missionary Ridge Fire near Durango is a vivid memory.
Yes, fire is a natural occurrence, as are drought cycles. That doesnt mean area residents have to watch helplessly as they reduce the quality of life in Southwest Colorado.
Prevent fire. As the outdoor recreation season starts, do all you can to avoid creating that first spark. Lightning will contribute enough. Remember that controlled burns tend not to say under control. Remember that windless mornings dont always lead to windless afternoons.
Plan for fire. Create defensible space around your home. Get rid of dry and dead vegetation. Know your exit routes; know what you need to grab on the way out.
And, as the Lower North Fork experience demonstrated, dont wait for the phone call. Use your own best judgment.
And conserve water. Appreciate its availability and its scarcity.
This weather may be anomalous, or it may be the new norm. Either way, the human residents of the Southwest need to do all they can to avoid making a challenging situation worse.
