There have been plenty of news reports about the difficulty of attracting agricultural workers to harvest a variety of crops in this country. So, too, the tech industry’s desire for the federal government to authorize more of the work visas for those with the computer skills that industry requires.
That shortage of workers may apply to more and more workplace categories, according to a California political science professor.
Why? Because the number of Mexicans coming to this country is now exceeded by the number who are leaving. Between 2007 and 2014, according to The Wall Street Journal, more than 1 million Mexicans returned to their country while 870,000 came north. As of 2014 there were 11.7 million undocumented Mexicans in this country, down from 12.8 million in 2007.
Yes, 2007 was the beginning of the inflated mortgage-induced economic recession from which the country has struggled to emerge. During that time, constraints on corporate and household spending reduced the number of available jobs that appealed to a largely unskilled workforce. That discouraged Mexicans from crossing the border.
But other reasons are more fundamental, and likely long-term, according to the Journal.
The newspaper cites a decline in the Mexican birthrate to a level that more closely matches the U.S. rate, reducing the pressure on family heads to cross the border for higher-paying wages. The Mexican economy has also stabilized at a somewhat higher level so that there are more jobs available at home. And, the country has strengthened a safety net of government resources available to assist those out of work or earning a low wage.
Polling has shown that for the majority of Mexicans returning home in 2014 after being in this country for five years did so to reunite with other family members.
Geographers are saying that the shift in Mexican migration across the border, which began in 2009, is a significant event, and that the four decades of northward movement may not be repeated.
What some experts on Mexican migration have said is actually taking place: that many Mexicans prefer to stay in Mexico, and will if a stronger Mexican economy can make jobs available.
One caveat to the Pew Research Center’s findings is that the number of immigrants from countries farther to the south, such as Honduras, remains high.
Given the reduction in Mexican immigration, it might be that comprehensive immigration reform, which many politicians have refused to discuss because of the issue of what to do for the now 11.7 million undocumented, may soon be easier to address. The first criteria may not be sealing the border to an even greater degree; it may be being certain there is a workforce in this country that lives out of the shadows and can get an education.
That will be an welcome change. Comprehensive immigration reform continues to be long overdue.
