A spring-like storm with scattered light rain in lower elevations and snow flurries in the mountains is expected in Southwest Colorado to extend into the early morning hours of Monday.
But a high-pressure system is expected to come in behind the storm, bringing hints of spring temperatures in the low 60s by the end of the week, said Matthew Aleska, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
“The bulk of the storm will be in the evening into the night. It will continue in the early hours of Monday morning when you might see some scattered showers, but the storm should fall apart by mid-morning,” Aleska said.
The storm might bring 2 to 5 inches of snow in the San Juan Mountains above 9,000 feet in elevation, he said.
Lightning and thunder might accompany scattered rain showers in the valleys, including Cortez, Durango and Pagosa Springs and scattered snow squalls in the mountains, Aleska said.
The storm cell bringing the precipitation to Colorado split in two, with the bulk of rain and snow expected to fall in the north and central mountains of Colorado or to the south of the Four Corners, he said.
After the storm moves out, a high-pressure ridge will set up west of Colorado and eventually move over the state during the week bringing warming temperatures until the weekend. Aleska said Cortez could see highs in the low 60s by Thursday and Durango could approach 60 on Thursday.
The long-range forecast for Southwest Colorado doesn’t offer much guidance about the amount of precipitation likely to fall this month, Aleska said. The long range forecast for March gives equal chance of above, normal or below average precipitation in the Four Corners.
“We really can’t say with a great degree of certainty what the precipitation in March will look like for the Four Corners,” Aleska said.
The 2 to 5 inches of snow expected today in the San Juans above 9,000 feet will be welcome. Southwest Colorado’s snowpack has fallen to only 89% of the 30-year average according to SNOTEL Colorado monitoring sites.
Colorado SNOTEL monitoring sites for Southwest Colorado are located in the mountains feeding the Animas, Dolores, San Miguel and San Juan rivers.
On Sunday, Purgatory Resort reported a 47-inch base depth with nine of 11 lifts open. Telluride Ski Area reported a 49-inch base with all 17 lifts open and Wolf Creek Ski Area reported a 70-inch base with all nine of its lifts in operation.
The Colorado Avalanche Information Center lists the risk of avalanches in the San Juan Mountains as low.
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