Forecasters say a mighty El Niño warming eastern Pacific Ocean waters has the potential to bring nasty snowstorms to Southwest Colorado this winter.
"It's possible right now," Bernie Meier, a Weather Service meteorologist, said of El Niño potential. "The waters are fairly warm for this time of year; that's why we're expecting it to be a strong one. We definitely can't rule out it being a record one."
Meterologist Jim Andrus, of Cortez, agreed, stating the El Niño weather phenomenon had historically resulted in cooler temperatures across the region.
"The El Niño improves our chances for more precipitation, which means more snowpack for the mountains and more snow here in Cortez too," said Andrus. "It's not a 100 percent guarantee, but it does improve our chances."
The current El Niño, nicknamed "Bruce Lee," is already the second-strongest on record for this time of year. The Weather Service says it could be the biggest in 50 years.
The World Meteorological Organization says it appears Bruce Lee will strengthen before the year ends. And according to the Weather Service's climate prediction center, temperature and precipitation impacts could last into 2016.
"There is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16," the prediction center said in an El Niño advisory. "And around an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016."
El Niños, which brew in the waters off the Central and South American coasts, typically bring excess precipitation to California and leave Montana and Idaho abnormally dry. In Colorado, forecasters say, the weather phenomenon often means monster snow events.
Joel Gratz, founding meteorologist of OpenSnow.com, says while El Niño offers no forecast guarantees, "it tips the odds" toward there being more snow.
In previous years of strong El Niño, Gratz said he has seen trends of big storms.
"Each of those seasons started out pretty strong and each of those (ski and snowboard) seasons ended pretty strong," he said. "The in between, the meat of the season, was below average."
Joe Ramey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said some of the hype makes him cringe. An El Niño pattern will definitely affect the weather in western Colorado this winter, but it's still impossible to forecast with certainty what it will mean for specific locations in the mountains, he said. He has examined the 23 El Niño winters since 1950 to see how they affected Aspen, Steamboat Springs, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton and other Colorado ski resorts.
Conditions have tended to be drier and warmer than average during December, January and February.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center recently issued a three-month outlook for December, January and February. Central Colorado had an equal chance of temperatures being above or below average. The southern two-thirds of the state has an above average chance of an above-average amount of precipitation, the outlook said.
