Montezuma and La Plata counties could see scattered thunderstorms through the week, according to the National Weather Service.
Moisture is expected to move into the area Tuesday and persist through the weekend with thunderstorms most likely in the afternoon, said Jimmy Fowler, a meteorologist for the weather service in Grand Junction.
“I would expect this weekend to be cloudy with scattered showers,” he said of Southwest Colorado.
Scattered showers are expected to bring highly variable amounts of rain, he said.
Areas above 9,000 feet could see snow, Fowler said.
It will be a fairly warm storm, but temperatures are still expected to fall.
High temperatures in Durango will drop from a predicted high of 68 degrees Tuesday to 62 degrees Wednesday and 59 degrees Thursday, according to the weather service.
Highs in Cortez will follow a similar pattern, dropping from a predicted high of 68 degrees Tuesday to around 60 degrees Thursday and Friday.
The thunderstorms will be driven by moisture moving into the area from California, he said.
Moisture moving into Southwest Colorado from the Pacific Ocean is a hallmark of El Niño weather patterns persisting in the area, Fowler said. El Niño has a 65% chance of continuing through the summer, he said.
Forecasters will be watching the 416 Fire burn scar closely, but Fowler said he couldn’t say whether the area will face a high risk of flooding.
La Plata County staff will also be monitoring the burn scar, particularly the temperatures above 10,000 feet to determine flooding risk, said Butch Knowlton, director of La Plata County’s Office of Emergency Management. The county’s temperature gauges take readings in an area that would feed Tripp and Falls creeks, he said.
Mild daytime temperatures and cold nights have helped prevent flooding thus far, he said.
“You couldn’t have ordered anything better than what we had this spring,” Knowlton said.
However, high temperatures in the coming weeks particularly above 8,500 feet could heighten the risk of flooding because significant snowpack remains, he said.
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