Unless something drastic happens, Montezuma County wont see real, per capita income rise back to pre-recession levels until 2015 at the earliest, according to Associate Professor of Economics Tino Sonora, Ph.D., who presented an extensive economic study in January at the 2012 Southwest Business Forum at Fort Lewis College in Durango.
It might take longer, but thats the minimum I think, Sonora said.
In addition, Sonora said local and state government revenues throughout the region are falling due to falling prices and property taxes.
Unemployment rates have dropped slightly, but they too are far from returning to pre-recession levels, he said. And some of the people who were reporting unemployment have likely given up on finding jobs and fallen out of the workforce, which means real unemployment percentages are higher, Sonora said.
And with higher unemployment rates and lower incomes also comes a lag in our tourism-based economies. Sonora predicted about 1,000 fewer visitors to Mesa Verde National Park in 2012.
Energy prices are up throughout the region, and Cortezs inhabitants have witnessed an increase in both utility prices and prices for other local government services.
The citys airport boarding numbers in 2011 were flat in comparison to 2010, and fuel sales were dismal, said Cortez Airport Manager Russ Machen.
So it wasnt a great year at all, but it looks like weve hit bottom, and were starting to climb out of it, Machen said.
Sonora agreed that the data is heading in the right direction. But he did say Montezuma County will be stuck in a recession for at least the next few years.
People seem to have become complacent about how serious this recession really is, Sonora said.
Senior Economist and Director for Wells Fargo Scott A. Anderson reported at the business forum that, not only the region, but the national economy also remains uncomfortably shaky, especially with European and Chinese markets dropping.
Reach Nathalie Winch at nathaliew@cortezjournal.com.