Get ready for some snow in Southwest Colorado.
A series of winter storms over the next few days are expected to bring much needed moisture to the region, said Mike Charnick, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
“It’s just a favorable storm path for us,” Charnick said.
The storms are expected to arrive in three waves.
The first, Charnick said, should hit the region after midnight Thursday and last until Friday afternoon/early evening.
During this time, the high country of the San Juan Mountains may receive 4 to 6 inches of new snow. Lower in Durango, however, only a half-inch or inch is expected to accumulate.
“It will be a good recharge for the mountains and some of the ski areas,” Charnick said.
Then, a second, larger storm is expected to arrive Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest periods of snowfall expected after midnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
“This one is certainly going to bring quite a bit more (moisture),” Charnick said.
In higher elevations, at least a foot of new snow is forecast, Charnick said. In Durango, the amount of snow is going to depend on how cool temperatures get, but generally, the area could see 3 to 6 inches of snow.
The third wave, Charnick said, remains more uncertain. Forecasting models show another storm arriving around Tuesday afternoon, but it’s too far out to say how much snow will fall.
“We’re not sure exactly how it will evolve,” he said. “There’s a lot of variability.”
When all is said and done, however, Charnick said the high country of the San Juan Mountains could receive a couple of feet of new snow, which is much needed for the region lagging behind average snowpack levels.
According to federal data, as of Thursday, Southwest Colorado – which includes the Animas, Dolores, San Juan and San Miguel river basins – is at 80% of normal, historic averages for this time of year.
The U.S. Drought Monitor, too, lists the region in either “extreme” or “exceptional” drought – the center’s top two highest categories of drought.
Likewise, the Animas River has been setting record-low flows this winter. On Monday, for instance, the river dropped below 100 cubic feet per second, a rare occurrence based on 110 years of record keeping.
jromeo@durangoherald.com