Advertisement

Optimism increasing

By Reporter
|
Saturday, Feb. 16, 2013 12:31 AM

Winter storms and a fresh layer of snow have brought a new level of optimism to water discussions in Southwest Colorado.

Buoyed by a recent forecast from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, the local U.S. Bureau of Reclamation office has released a tentative operating plan for McPhee Reservoir which predicts all water allocations will be met for the 2013 water year. Though the state of the area's rivers and reservoirs is far from outstanding, present snow levels and predicted instream flows are reason to be hopeful, according to Vern Harrell, a civil engineering technician with the Bureau of Reclamation's Western Colorado area office.

"It looks fair right now, not really good, but fair," Harrell said. "It looks like we most likely will meet all our obligations for the users."

The present water year comes on the heels of four years of drought conditions which have left local reservoirs dangerously low. Currently, McPhee Reservoir stands 100,000 acre feet below it's reserve elevation in February 2012. The lack of reserve in the reservoir means water users in the area are counting on a solid snowpack and generous runoff to provide operating water for 2013.

"The reason we were able to get through last year, with low snowpack, was because we had considerable water in storage," said Mike Preston, Dolores Water Conservancy District general manager. "Going into this runoff season, we've got a much bigger hole to fill. We are in a deficit that impacts everything."

Should current trends continue, the reservoir would gain enough water to meet needs, Harrell said, but as a result McPhee would be drawn down even further going into next winter.

"Pretty much, if this thing were to play out with the inflow we are predicting and we maxed out everybody's full allocations, which is worst-case scenario demand, it looks like everyone would have a pretty good chance at a full supply," he said.

However, that sort of demand following a year when the reservoir did not fill will mean the region will be right back in the hole for 2014.

"If we do have to fill allocations at full supply, that means next year we will be starting from scratch again," Harrell said. "That is certainly not fun."

Preston said meeting water allocations is the primary goal for those who manage the local reservoir.

"People's livelihood depend on this water," he said. "If we are able to deliver our allocations, that is certainly what we want to do. Managing lower reservoir elevations is more difficult, but if we have the water available we will meet our allocations. That is our priority."

The forecast for the reservoir predicts total accumulation of 205,000 acre feet, roughly 70 percent of average inflow volume. Should the reservoir fill at that rate it would reach a maximum content of 272,988 acre feet, 63 percent full. By October, however, the reservoir would already be pulled down to an elevation lower than where it sits currently. Thus, the cycle of hoping for snow and decent inflow rates would begin again.

Harrell said though forecasts generally attempt to simplify the equation of water supply and demand, many factors influence reservoirs and the ability to support water demand for the coming year.

Though snowpack seems the most obvious key to a decent water year, the timing of the runoff, current soil moisture and summer weather conditions all contribute to the story of water allocations and reservoir demand. The interplay of these factors can support or hurt water supply.

"The worst case scenario is if we quit getting our storms and it turned up dry again and then if that was coupled with a late runoff, early demand and a hot, dry summer," Harrell said. "That's the nightmare. Then we would experience some shortages."

In terms of comparative water years, Harrell said the condition of the reservoir is disturbingly similar to 2002, when the region suffered a dramatic and devastating drought. However, Harrell still finds reason for what he calls "cautious optimism."

"We've still got two months to gain water and I think this last storm was a huge help to us," he said. "To be honest, in January I didn't want to put out an operating plan because it wasn't good. But, I'm feeling pretty good about it now. I think we are going to be OK."



kimberlyb@cortezjournal.com.

Hope in the deep end

Mountain peaks covered in snow may be considered quintessential Colorado, but this winter has not provided an overabundance of the white stuff. Rather, much of Colorado has experienced above average temperatures and far below average snowfall, resulting in bare mountains and brown fields. The exception, it seems, is right here in Southwest Colorado.

According to automated system data gathered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service, the snowpack statewide is at 76 percent of average. Of the eight river basin regions studied by NRCS, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan region is the only basin above 90 percent of average, calculated at 91 percent as of Feb. 12. The Arkansas and South Platte basins are at 65 and 59 percent of average respectively. North Platte stands at 72 percent, Yampa and White at 76 percent, Colorado at 70 percent, Gunnison at 78 percent and the Upper Rio Grande at 81 percent.

'The rest of the state is in extremely dry conditions,' said Mike Preston, general manager at the Dolores Water Conservancy District. 'Things are really desperate in many places in the state and we have actually been very fortunate.'

Local water managers rely on five snowpack telemetry sites to provide automated information on high country snowpack and moisture levels. Over the past two weeks, Preston said, the numbers have gone from fair to promising.

'Things are beginning to look a lot more encouraging,' he said in a phone interview on Tuesday. 'Two weeks ago the moisture content at high elevations was bouncing around in the low 60 percent range of average. As of Monday it was sitting at 94 percent. The snow water equivalent has just improved dramatically over the last two weeks.'

Preston said the area seems to be benefiting from storms coming in from the south and west which are just brushing Southwest Colorado.

'They aren't really reaching any further into the state or even the northwest mountains in our area,' he said. 'Even in the SNOTELs that we read, the high snow at Lizard Head pass and Sharkstooth are still reading further below average than the rest. The snow is just not hitting there. It is hitting on the southwest facing slopes and it is hitting low. Regardless, we are benefiting.'

The snowpack is encouraging for water users in the area as it comes directly after one of the driest years on record since the local conservancy district started delivering water out of McPhee Reservoir in 1986.

Preston said though the snowpack is encouraging, the water district is working from a large deficit in the local reservoirs, which makes every flake of snow important. Pointing to 2008, the last year the reservoir filled to the point the district authorized a large spill, Preston noted the area's moisture content is good, but nowhere near what would be considered a good year.

'Right now we are averaging 9.5 inches of water equivalent at our SNOTELs,' he said. 'In 2008, which was a great year, they were averaging 18.3 (inches). So we are still playing catch up.'

While the snowpack picture at the moment is encouraging, Preston said there is no such thing as too much snow.

'We need more storm cycles and what would be ideal would be some large storms to keep us up in that range where we are sitting,' he said. 'If we could push that water equivalent up to 100 percent or above, then we would actually be able to meet our allocations and end the year in better shape than we did last year.'



kimberlyb@cortezjournal.com.

Snowpack Levels

Eight river basin regions



Statewide: 76 percent of average



San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan region: 91 percent of average Arkansas and South Platte basins: 65 and 59 percent of average



North Platte: 72 percent of average

Yampa and White: 76 percent of average

Colorado: 70 percent of average

Gunnison: 78 percent of average

Upper Rio Grande: 81 percent of average



U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service; as of Feb. 12

Advertisement
Ballantine Communications, Inc.
The Journal Durango Herald
Adventure Pro DGO
Southwest Scene Directory Plus Four Corners Expos
Contact Us
News Tip/Feedback Letters to the Editor FAQs
Suspend/Report Missing Paper Advertise with Us Staff/Contact
Find Us

© 1999–2024 The Journal | Ballantine Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy